Adapt to the Climate Emergency: Do or Do Not, there is No Try - By Enrico Gaveglia

Global warming keeps rising. If it exceeds 1.5°C, protecting communities from the risks of climate change will be tough. If it exceeds 2°C,  it will be impossible to build resilience to those risks, in some regions.
 
This is the warning from the latest report by the International Panel on Climate Change, which underlines the urgency for climate action so communities and countries can reduce emissions, and adapt to climate change.
 
This is also the clarion call that continues to make up narratives pushed out from the rooms of Copenhagen, Stockholm, and as recently as this week, from Bonn.
 
Yet, despite the progress made in trying to adapt to those risks, widespread losses and damage to nature and people keep mounting.  What’s worse, the most vulnerable now bear the brutal brunt of extreme weather events – specifically Small Island Developing States also known as SIDS.
 
Climate change is projected to dramatically affect marine and terrestrial ecosystems, which will further affect the environment and people whose survival and livelihoods depend on them. SIDS are on the frontline of the climate crisis, but they are also working together to be at the forefront of climate solutions.
 
They have made ambitious commitments to reduce emissions – so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that were set up in the Paris Agreement. The Maldives, for instance, has updated its contributions to cover a wider range of sectors and is more deeply engaged in safeguarding the country’s biodiversity and ecosystems, as they play a vital role in adaptation, and in mitigating the effects of climate change.
 
Since there is no getting away from the risks of climate change, the other option is to try to adapt to them. This crucial ‘Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)’ was also established in Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, to define and drive collective efforts toward enhancing adaptation, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
 
Easy to frame, much harder to implement. Harder yet to tabulate how effective countries and communities are in adapting to climate change; where additional support is needed; whether measures are being implemented as planned; and evaluating if they are successfully reducing vulnerability, increasing resilience, and boosting ‘adaptive capacity.’
 
This is crucial for assessment and informed decision-making. Not to mention that adaptation is highly context-dependent, so accurately capturing data will differ in each country’s context.
 
To overcome the many hurdles of adaptation, SIDS representatives met last month in the Maldives to launch the “Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh work programme on the Global Goal on Adaptation.” The programme launched in 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland, strives to sustain progress towards achieving the goal of adaptation. What they decide will define the future of their country and its people.

The aim is to establish robust, integrated, and appropriate monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems that will provide each country with a clear view of its progress on adaptation and enhance the planning and implementation of further actions.

SMART - Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound – is one approach on the discussion table. Long time frames involved in climate change and adaptation should also be accounted for, to track adaptation results over the long term. And in the short and medium-term, process indicators - measuring if planned activities take place - could provide guidance on further adaptation actions, for planners and decision-makers.

But adaptation’s progress should not be measured in a vacuum. To optimize its value, it is crucial to connect the dots. Such monitoring and evaluation should reflect the priorities of reducing emissions, how well the adaptation agenda is woven into a government’s development plans, and achievements on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  

For many developing countries this is a tall order. Such efforts require significant resources and must contend with varying reporting requirements.

There are some solutions out there to enhance reporting processes, reduce duplication of information, and optimize the use of human and material resources. A classic example comes from the tiny island nation of Grenada. Its efforts are guided by three principles: keep it simple, through a set of “core indicators;” use what already exists, to avoid duplication of reporting efforts; and apply a participatory process, that is, include all institutions responsible for implementing adaptation.

The goal of the meeting in the Maldives is to facilitate better communications on adaptation priorities between all parties, examine their implementation and support needs, and complement each other’s work and avoid duplication.

It is also important to be inclusive of local nuances because traditional and indigenous knowledge plays a vital role in the monitoring and evaluating adaptation efforts, as does the need to better understand the vulnerability and resilience of women’s adaptive capacity.

Getting there won’t be easy, but if we don’t address these challenges, the future of not just small island states but us too will be grim. For beyond the loss of the obvious - the economic benefits and the bountiful resources of the sea, we will also lose the priceless - the magic and mysteries of the seas.  

As that famous quote goes: “Not everything that can be counted counts. Not everything that counts can be counted.”
 
Enrico Gaveglia is the Resident Representative of the United Nations Development Programme in Maldives.